Policy-Making toward Integrated Water Resources Management of Zarrine River Basin via System Dynamics Approach under Climate Change Impact

In terms of having a comprehensive vision toward supplying the water requirements, multi-criteria decision-making approach was employed on Zarrine River Basin (ZRB) in northwest Iran. First, climate change impacts were analyzed with Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) downscaling by using General Circulation Models (GCMs) including European Consortium Earth System Model (EC-EARTH), Hadley Centre Global Environment version 2 (HADGEM2), for Interdisciplinary Climate, 5 (MIROC5), and Max Planck Institute (MPI-ESM), from Coupled Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5, RCP8.5) scenarios 2021–2080. Afterward, downscaled variables utilized as inputs to Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model predict future runoff impact. Finally, system dynamics (SD) simulate various assessing balance utilizing Vensim software. The results models suggested that temperature basin will increase 0.47 0.91 °C RCPs4.5 8.5 2040, respectively. Additionally, precipitation decrease 3.5 percent RCP4.5 14 RCP8.5, Moreover, simulation revealed demand sectors be enormously increased. contribution impact run-off seven decrease, average, over basin. SD model, according presented plausible decreasing agriculture product shifting irrigation efficiency, cloud-seeding, population control, household consumption reduction, reducing meat animal-husbandry production, groundwater resulted equilibrium five years. However, performance individual not effective; instead, combination several led effective managing reduced change.